2011 hopes for Dallas-Fort Worth housing market rest on jobs

Housing industry prognosticators are hoping for modest gains in the North Texas market in 2011.

That's what they were wishing for in 2010, too.

It all depends on the economy, industry forecasters say.

"Jobs are key – not only the number of jobs, but equally important are the kinds and quality of jobs, incomes associated with new jobs and the permanence of the jobs created," said James Gaines, economist at the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. "If all the new employment is for low-wage, temporary workers, it won't have much positive impact on the housing market."

With expectations for modest economic growth in 2011, Gaines doesn't look for a sharp rebound in the North Texas housing market.

"Best news is probably that we don't see things getting worse, but we also don't see significant improvement," he said. "Tight credit and slow job gains will keep home sales relatively flat.

"As the job market does improve and more people are employed, there may be a slight increase in volume, but I don't think it will be more than a few percentage points, at best."

The local housing market has a lot of ground to make up.

The number of pre-owned homes sold each month in North Texas has fallen by more than 50 percent from its peak in mid-2006.

And new home sales have plunged more than 60 percent during the same period.

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