The long run of declines in Dallas-Fort Worth home prices should turn positive next summer, an industry analyst said Thursday. First American CoreLogic, a California-based housing and finance information firm, is forecasting that home prices around the country will bottom out by spring. And in the D-FW area, prices should be slightly positive by August, the firm's economists predict. "In August 2010, the index is projecting that 12-month appreciation for Dallas-Plano-Irving home prices will be 0.21 percent," First American's latest report said. That compares with a 0.12 percent decline in home prices here in the 12 months ending August 2009, the analyst said. First American's assessment of the D-FW home market is a little more positive than other local and national measures, which say prices here are down about 1 percent from a year ago.
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Analyst: Dallas-Fort Worth home prices to turn positive next summer
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Housing Prices May Fall Further
Over the past few months, there have been suggestions that the U.S. housing market might finally be bottoming out. Since July, the decline in sales of both new and existing homes has moderated. Moreover, over the past three months, there has been a very modest increase in home prices at the national level as measured by the 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller home price index.However, the high inventory of unsold homes, continuing foreclosures, and double-digit unemployment could mean that housing prices have further to fall. Reasons for cheer. A number of "green shoots" suggest cause for some optimism: --Inventory reduction. Whereas housing starts are presently estimated to be running at a 600,000 annual rate, underlying U.S. household formation is presently running at an annual rate of approximately 1.5 million units. Lower residential construction relative to household formation is allowing excessive home inventories to be gradually worked off. --Cheap mortgages. As a result of the Federal Reserve's highly accommodative monetary policy, and the activity of the government-sponsored home lending enterprises, mortgage rates have declined to more affordable levels. For example, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have fallen below 5% for the first time in many years.A number of factors suggest housing prices could drop another 10%.
Friday, October 23, 2009
US ECON: Sept Existing Home Sales Up 9.4% to 5.57 Mln Units
Sales of previously owned homes rose in September by 9.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 mln units, the highest sales level recorded since July 2007. Economists were expecting home sales to rise to 5.35 mln units from the 5.10 mln units reported in August (since revised down slightly to 5.09 mln). Existing home sales are now up 9.2% from September 2008.
The National Association of Realtors said about 29% of last month's sales were of distressed homes and approximately 31% of September buyers were first-time homeowners. NAR attributed much of the month's sales increase to the $8,000 first time homebuyer tax credit. NAR Chief economist Lawrence Yun said: 'We are hopeful the tax credit will be extended and possibly expanded to more buyers, at least through the middle of next year, because the rising sales momentum needs to continue for a few additional quarters until we reach a point of self-sustaining recovery.'
Friday, October 16, 2009
Will Proposition 2, 3, 5 open the door for more taxation?
On Nov. 3, 2009, the voters of Texas will once again have an opportunity to take a stand against the burdensome and uneven taxation of residential property. There are four amendments that will directly affect all property owners in the state, and the Texas Association of REALTORS® is imploring all homeowners to vote and be heard on these issues.
So what exactly are you voting for in this election cycle? If you’re like me, you have on more than one occasion glanced at a proposed amendment, scratched your head, and had a bewildered look on your face. The language is so full of legislative jargon, and without background information, it is difficult at times to figure out the intent.
I’m sure that anyone who has ever seen an episode of Star Trek has probably wondered, “How is it that aliens from all across the galaxy can speak and understand English?” The television show explained this phenomenon through the use of an accepted convention in science fiction called a “universal translator.” No matter what kind of gibberish was spoken, it would always come out as plain English. I have no doubt that anyone who has ever consulted with an attorney on a legal issue probably could’ve used something like this.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Foreclosures Grow in Housing Market's Top Tiers
New data suggest that foreclosures are rising in more expensive housing markets.
About 30% of foreclosures in June involved homes in the top third of local housing values, up from 16% when the foreclosure crisis began three years ago, according to new data from real-estate Web site Zillow.com. The bottom one-third of housing markets, by home value, now account for 35% of foreclosures, down from 55% in 2006.
The report shows that foreclosures, after declining earlier this year, began to accelerate in the late spring and that more expensive homes have more recently accounted for a growing share of all foreclosures. "The slope of that curve in recent months is much sharper than it was recently," said Stan Humphries, chief economist for Zillow. Rising foreclosures among more-expensive homes could create added pressure for a housing market that has shown signs of stabilizing in recent months as sales of lower-priced homes pick up.
The Zillow research compared homes against the median values for their local market and broke each market into three tiers by value. Zillow then looked at the share of monthly foreclosures in each tier over the past decade.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Dallas-Fort Worth could have new-home shortage in 2010
Forget what you've heard about a glut of new houses on the market. For three years, Dallas-Fort Worth builders have sold more homes than they have constructed. So the inventory of finished new houses has fallen so low that homebuyers may encounter a shortage when next year's market kicks off. "For homebuilders to maintain their current sales pace, they are going to have to start 30 or maybe 40 percent more homes than they are starting today," said David Brown, who heads the Dallas office of real estate analysis firm Metrostudy Inc. "There continues to be a demand for new homes, and we are not adding as much supply." During the last two years, builders in North Texas have sold almost 13,000 more houses than they have started. That's caused inventory to drop below 5,000 units – about a three-month supply.
Friday, October 9, 2009
Loan-Modification Plan Hits Target
The federal government said Thursday it had met its goal of beginning trial loan modifications for 500,000 financially troubled homeowners in a sign the foreclosure-prevention plan is gaining traction.
The loan numbers were released as several senior House lawmakers expressed support for extending an $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers. Talk of extending the credit shows how lawmakers believe the fragile housing market remains dependent on federal support.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the number of people participating in the modification effort is, for the first time, increasing at a rate faster than that of new families facing the risk of foreclosure. But the number of families at risk is still "unacceptably large," he said.
Under the modification program, eligible borrowers who are behind on their mortgage payments or at risk of imminent default can get their payments reduced. It is too soon to tell whether the program will be a success; most of the modifications are still in a trial period.
Borrowers typically must be current on their payments in the trial program after three months -- and submit such documentation as tax returns and pay stubs -- to qualify for a reworked mortgage.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Dallas-Fort Worth new home sales drop 34% in 3Q
New-home sales in the Dallas-Fort Worth area continued to fall in the third quarter despite tax incentives that brought out more first-time buyers. Sales by builders dropped almost 34 percent from the year-earlier quarter, housing analyst firm Residential Strategies Inc. said Wednesday. The total of 4,163 new-home sales was virtually unchanged from the second quarter of 2009. "There was a flurry of buying activity this summer with people wanting to take advantage of the federal tax credit," said Residential Strategies' Ted Wilson. "Some of it will be pushed into the fourth quarter." The income tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time buyers is to expire Nov. 30. The credit also hasn't caused an increase in sales of pre-owned homes, which were down 8 percent in September from a year earlier. Last month, real estate agents sold 6,020 single-family homes through their multiple listing service.
