Dallas-area home prices – buoyed in recent months by a resurgence of buyers – are now expected to fall slightly this year, according to a new forecast.
So far in 2010, home prices in North Texas are up almost 4 percent from a year ago. During the same period, pre-owned home sales have increased almost 12 percent.
But with homebuyer tax credits running out and foreclosures continuing, researchers at analysts Case-Shiller and Fiserv are cautioning about a double dip in nationwide residential prices.
"The first-time homebuyer tax credit has expired, the Federal Reserve has stopped buying residential mortgage-backed securities and the projected number of foreclosures remains extremely high," Fiserv chief economist David Stiff said in the report. "As a result, markets with recent price increases may see small price declines before prices finally stabilize at the end of this year or early 2011."
In the Dallas area, home prices are forecast to fall 1.8 percent this year from 2009 levels, the analysts predict.
That's less than the 3.1 percent dip Case-Shiller and Fiserv researchers are anticipating for the entire county, but any decline would be a setback for the local market.
Analysts say not to be overly concerned about the negative Dallas-area price forecast. "Because most Texas metro areas – and, in fact, most of the South – did not have the boom-bust in housing, there was no real home price decline," Moody's Analytics director Edward Friedman said. "Instead, prices are essentially in equilibrium.
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